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updowntrends
Technology & Methodology

Automated technical chart analysis consistent, reproducible, scalable

A structured overview of the technical chart analysis pipeline — from multi-indicator features and prediction horizons to objective evaluation using continuous walk-forward out-of-sample validation.

All analyses and forecasts are generated automatically using AI and multiple technical indicators. They are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

AI engine for stock forecasts

At the core are continuously improving machine-learning models trained on price, volume, and volatility time series. Instead of fixed rules (“RSI > 70 = sell”), the AI learns from thousands of features derived from technical analysis, market structure, and volume profiles. Separate models are trained per asset and prediction horizon to capture asset-specific behavior for investment assets. Models are updated daily with new data and continuously validated via walk-forward out-of-sample testing.

Technical analysis with multi-indicator signals

Instead of single-signal trading, the system combines major indicator groups: trend & moving averages (SMA, EMA, MACD, PPO), momentum & oscillators (RSI, Stochastics, ROC, CCI, Williams %R), volatility & price bands (ATR, Bollinger Bands, Keltner, Donchian), volume & money flow (OBV, MFI, Chaikin, VWAP), plus market structure & price levels (support/resistance, pivot levels, break of structure). Additional price-action patterns like Fibonacci retracements and other technical signals are included as well. The AI evaluates the joint configuration and interaction — not a single indicator in isolation.

Signals across multiple horizons (1D, 5D, 20D, 60D)

Markets behave differently across time scales: short-term noise, tactical moves, and mid-term trend phases often follow distinct patterns. For that reason, directional (up/down) forecasts are generated for multiple horizons — 1, 5, 20, and 60 trading days. This allows short-term setups, swing trades, and mid-term positions to be evaluated and compared separately. Each horizon is trained, validated, and reported as its own signal.

Transparent quality: walk-forward & out-of-sample

Signal quality is reported separately for each asset and horizon and tracked over rolling time windows. Performance is validated using continuous walk-forward out-of-sample testing on real market data — not static in-sample backtests. This makes it clear which horizons and market regimes have historically produced the most reliable directional signals and where uncertainty is higher. Standard classification metrics are provided per horizon to enable objective comparisons across assets and models.

Technical Indicators

Feature Engineering for AI-Driven Forecasting

Our forecasting engine uses a wide selection of technical indicators, combined across multiple time windows, to compute robust probabilities for 1, 5, 20 and 60 trading days.

Trend & moving averages

Trend-following indicators for short-, mid- and long-term signals

Trend indicators smooth price action and reveal broader moves. The model uses short windows (e.g. 5–20 days), medium windows (20–60 days) and long windows (100–200+ days) in parallel, allowing the AI to distinguish between short-term noise and stable trends.

Schematic illustration

Price data: open, high, low, close

Foundation for all other indicators

Beyond closing prices, the model explicitly uses high and low information to capture intraday ranges, gap structure and extremes. Open, high, low and close values in multiple aggregations (e.g. rolling highs/lows over 5, 20 or 60 days) form the basis for trend, volatility and structure features.

Formula
Base quantities:
High(t), Low(t), Close(t)

Rolling extremes:
RollingHigh_n(t) = max(High[t−n+1 … t])
RollingLow_n(t)  = min(Low[t−n+1  … t])

Typical interpretation

Sequences of higher highs and higher lows (HH/HL) often signal a robust uptrend, while lower highs and lower lows (LH/LL) mark a downtrend.

SMA – Simple Moving Average

Arithmetic average of closing prices

The simple moving average over n days is used in multiple lengths: very short SMAs (5–10 days) capture short-term moves, medium SMAs (20–60 days) describe swing trends, and long SMAs (100–200+ days) serve as structural trend axes. Normalised distances between price and SMA (e.g. Close/SMA − 1) are also used as features.

Formula
SMA(t, n) = (1 / n) · Σ_{i=0}^{n−1} Close(t − i)

Typical interpretation

Prices far above the 200-day SMA while the 50-day SMA is rising point to a mature uptrend. Extremely large distances to long SMAs often indicate overextension that tends to be followed by corrections.

EMA – Exponential Moving Average

Trend filter with stronger emphasis on recent prices

EMAs react faster to new information than SMAs. The model uses short EMAs (e.g. 8, 12 days) for short-term reversals, medium EMAs (26–50 days) for swing trends and longer EMAs (100+ days) for macro structure. Crossovers between EMAs of different lengths are modelled as separate structural features.

Formula
EMA(t) = EMA(t−1) + α · (Close(t) − EMA(t−1))
with α = 2 / (n + 1)

Typical interpretation

Fast EMAs repeatedly crossing above and below slow EMAs indicate choppy, trendless phases. Cleanly stacked EMAs (short above medium above long) are typical of clear trend regimes.

EWM – Exponentially weighted mean (features)

Smoothed versions of other metrics

Beyond EMAs on prices, exponentially weighted means are applied to other features (e.g. volume, ROC, ATR). This produces smooth series that dampen outliers and highlight medium-term tendencies. Short EWM windows react more strongly, long ones produce more stable signals.

Formula
EWM_Feature(t) = EWM_Feature(t−1) + α · (Feature(t) − EWM_Feature(t−1))

Typical interpretation

EWMs in the model help separate short-lived spikes (e.g. in volume or volatility) from persistent structural changes.

MACD – short, classic, long

Trend regime and momentum across multiple window pairs

MACD is used in several parameter variants: short pairs (e.g. 6/13/5) for very short-term momentum, classic settings (12/26/9) for mid-term signals and longer pairs (e.g. 19/39/9) for structural moves. The model also considers distances between MACD line, signal line and zero line.

Formula
MACD(t)   = EMA_fast(t) − EMA_slow(t)
Signal(t) = EMA(MACD(t), n_signal)

Typical interpretation

Strongly positive MACD values that remain far above the zero line across several periods signal powerful uptrends. Divergences between price and MACD (new highs in price but not in MACD) may indicate weakening trend strength.

PPO – Percentage price oscillator

Percentage version of MACD

PPO normalises MACD relative to price level, making trends comparable across stocks with very different price ranges. The model uses short and medium PPO variants to capture percentage trend speed and strength.

Formula
PPO(t) = (EMA_fast(t) − EMA_slow(t)) / EMA_slow(t) · 100

Typical interpretation

High positive PPO values correspond to strong percentage up moves; values around 0 indicate sideways markets. Extreme PPO spikes may signal trend overextension.

PSAR – Parabolic stop and reverse

Trend-following stop indicator

Parabolic SAR produces a sequence of points often interpreted as dynamic stop levels. The model computes PSAR with different acceleration parameters to distinguish smooth trend phases from choppy markets.

Formula
PSAR(t) = PSAR(t−1) + AF · (EP − PSAR(t−1))
AF: Acceleration Factor, EP: Extreme Point

Typical interpretation

Prices staying on one side of the PSAR points for an extended period typically indicate a stable trend regime. Frequent PSAR flips point to sideways conditions.

Crossovers & lags

Derived trend and timing features

In addition to raw values, crossovers (e.g. golden/death cross between 50- and 200-day SMA/EMA) and time lags of indicators are used as separate features. This allows the model to learn how long a trend has persisted and how often reversals occurred within a window.

Formula
Examples:
ΔMA(t) = MA_short(t) − MA_long(t)
Lag(t, k) = Indicator(t) − Indicator(t−k)
CrossoverFlag = 1 if MA_short(t) > MA_long(t) AND MA_short(t−1) ≤ MA_long(t−1)

Typical interpretation

Clusters of bullish crossovers together with rising volume and volatility typically point to young, dynamic trends.

Ichimoku cloud

Multi-line trend and equilibrium system

The Ichimoku cloud combines conversion line, base line and two leading spans projected into the future. The model uses the price position relative to the cloud, cloud thickness and the alignment of conversion and base line as structured trend features across shorter and longer windows.

Formula
Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, Senkou Span A/B according to the standard definition;
Cloud area = region between Span A and Span B.

Typical interpretation

Price above a rising cloud with conversion line above base line indicates a robust uptrend. Cloud breaks may point to potential trend reversals.

Momentum & oscillators

Strength, speed and extremes of price moves

Momentum indicators measure how strong and how fast the market moves in a given direction. The model uses short windows (e.g. 5–10 days) for very fast momentum, classic windows (14–20 days) for standard oscillators and longer windows (30–60 days) for structural overbought/oversold states.

Schematic illustration

RSI – Relative Strength Index

0–100 oscillator for overbought/oversold

RSI compares average gains and losses. In addition to the classic 14-day RSI, the model uses shorter (e.g. 7-day) and longer (21–28-day) variants to distinguish between short-lived spikes and persistent overbought/oversold regimes.

Formula
RS  = AvgGain / AvgLoss
RSI = 100 − 100 / (1 + RS)

Typical interpretation

RSI > 70 is classically overbought, RSI < 30 oversold. Combined with trend and volume indicators, the model can distinguish trend accelerations (strong RSI in trend direction) from reversal patterns.

Stochastic oscillator

Position of the close within the range

The stochastic oscillator measures where the close lies within the recent high–low range. The model uses fast (%K) and smoothed (%D) variants across windows (e.g. 14, 20 days) to distinguish range-bound markets from trending regimes with frequent band breakouts.

Formula
%K = (Close − LowestLow) / (HighestHigh − LowestLow) · 100

Typical interpretation

High %K values near 100 indicate closes near local highs, values near 0 near local lows. Multiple oscillator peaks without new price highs can indicate exhaustion.

ROC – Rate of Change

Percentage change over n periods

ROC measures percentage price change between today and n periods ago. The model uses short ROC windows (e.g. 5 days) for short-term swings, medium (20 days) for swing moves and longer (60 days) to quantify larger trend moves.

Formula
ROC(t, n) = (Close(t) − Close(t−n)) / Close(t−n) · 100

Typical interpretation

Very high positive ROC values indicate strong upside acceleration, very negative values sharp downside moves. Extreme ROC spikes often occur during breakouts or capitulation phases.

CCI – Commodity Channel Index

Deviation from typical price

CCI measures how far the current typical price (average of high, low, close) deviates from its moving average. The model uses shorter and longer CCI windows to distinguish brief spikes from structural extremes.

Formula
TypicalPrice = (High + Low + Close) / 3
CCI = (TypicalPrice − MA(TP)) / (0.015 · MeanDeviation)

Typical interpretation

CCI values above +100 indicate strong positive deviations, below −100 strong negative ones. Repeated extremes suggest trending markets with elevated breakout risk.

Williams %R

Speed oscillator of range position

Williams %R is similar to the stochastic oscillator but inverted (0 to −100). The model uses %R to spot fast reversal points in tight ranges and possible blow-off moves at trend extremes.

Formula
%R = (HighestHigh − Close) / (HighestHigh − LowestLow) · (−100)

Typical interpretation

Values near −20 are often treated as overbought, near −80 as oversold. Combined with volume and volatility spikes, this can foreshadow sharp reversals.

ADX, +DI, −DI

Trend strength and directional dominance

The directional movement system provides ADX as a measure of trend strength and +DI/−DI for direction dominance. The model uses short ADX windows for current trend intensity and longer ones to gauge how long a trend regime has persisted.

Formula
Based on DM+ / DM− and True Range;
ADX ≈ smoothed measure derived from the difference between +DI and −DI.

Typical interpretation

High ADX with dominant +DI signals a strong uptrend, with dominant −DI a strong downtrend. Low ADX suggests trendless sideways phases where signals should be treated more cautiously.

Volatility & price bands

Fluctuation range, risk and band-based extremes

Volatility indicators quantify typical fluctuation ranges, while bands and channels mark statistically notable price areas. The model uses short volatility windows (e.g. 10 days) for current nervousness and longer windows (60+ days) to detect regime changes.

Schematic illustration

ATR – Average True Range

Average true range as risk measure

ATR captures average trading range including gaps. The model uses short ATR windows (10 days) for current volatility, medium (20–30 days) for typical move sizes and long (60+ days) for structural risk regimes. ATR is considered relative to price and relative to its own history.

Formula
TR  = max(High − Low, |High − PrevClose|, |Low − PrevClose|)
ATR = (1 / n) · Σ TR

Typical interpretation

Very high ATR values often mark event phases (news, earnings, shocks) where signals carry both high opportunity and risk. Low ATR values correspond to calm markets where trends tend to be less explosive.

Bollinger Bands

Standard deviation bands around a moving average

Bollinger bands adapt dynamically to volatility. The model uses several SMA/width combinations (e.g. 20 days / 2σ; 50 days / 2.5σ) to spot tight squeezes and sudden expansions. Time spent outside the bands and band width itself are additional features.

Formula
Middle = SMA_n
Upper  = SMA_n + k · σ
Lower  = SMA_n − k · σ

Typical interpretation

Tight bands followed by a breakout often mark the start of a strong trend phase. Extended stays above the upper band can indicate momentum-driven markets.

Keltner Channels

ATR-based volatility channels

Keltner channels use an EMA as midline and ATR as band width. Unlike Bollinger bands they are less sensitive to single outliers. The model uses multiple EMA/ATR combinations to pick up breakouts from compressed channels and volatility expansions.

Formula
Middle = EMA_n
Upper  = EMA_n + k · ATR_n
Lower  = EMA_n − k · ATR_n

Typical interpretation

A tight Keltner channel with a breakout on rising volume is a classic setup for emerging trends.

Donchian Channels

Highest high and lowest low of the window

Donchian channels mark the highest high and lowest low of an n-day window. Short windows (e.g. 20 days) serve breakout systems, while longer windows (55+ days) represent higher-level trend boundaries. In the model, breakouts and pullbacks to these levels act as structural features.

Formula
Upper = max(High_{t−n+1 … t})
Lower = min(Low_{t−n+1  … t})

Typical interpretation

A breakout above the upper Donchian band with confirming volume can signal the start of a trend; pullbacks into previous band zones often mark consolidations.

Vol_park & Vol_gar

Parkinson and Garman–Klass volatility

These volatility measures use high/low ranges and, for Garman–Klass, also open/close information. They provide finer risk signals than close-to-close volatility. The model uses short windows for current range turbulence and long windows for structural volatility regimes.

Formula
Vol_park and Vol_gar are based on High/Low/Open/Close using the standard Parkinson and Garman–Klass volatility formulas.

Typical interpretation

Elevated range volatility with moderate close-to-close volatility points to intraday turbulence often missed by simple models.

Volume & money flow

Trading activity, liquidity and capital flows

Volume-based indicators show how much capital supports a move. The model looks not only at absolute volume but also volume relative to historical averages, price levels (VWAP) and money-flow oscillators.

Schematic illustration

Volume (close & annualised)

Trading activity and liquidity

The model uses daily volume, moving volume averages and annualised metrics. Short windows (e.g. 5–10 days) capture current activity, longer windows (60+ days) reflect structural liquidity. Volume spikes relative to historical distributions are treated as separate features.

Formula
zScoreVol = (Volume − Mean(Volume_n)) / Std(Volume_n)

Typical interpretation

Strong price moves without significant volume increase are more prone to false signals than moves accompanied by clearly elevated volume.

MFI – Money Flow Index

Volume-weighted oscillator

The money flow index combines typical price with volume and is often described as an 'RSI on money flows'. Short MFI windows show whether intraday moves are mostly bought or sold, while longer windows capture structural accumulation/distribution.

Formula
TypicalPrice = (High + Low + Close) / 3
MoneyFlow  = TypicalPrice · Volume
MFI        = RSI-like oscillator built from positive and negative money flows

Typical interpretation

High MFI with rising prices points to strong buying pressure; a falling MFI while prices rise can indicate waning smart-money interest.

Chaikin money flow & AD line

Price–volume confirmation

Chaikin indicators combine the close's position within the daily range with volume. The model uses both the accumulation/distribution line and Chaikin money flow across windows to determine whether strong closes are genuinely backed by capital inflows.

Formula
AD = cumulative sum of
((Close − Low − (High − Close)) / (High − Low)) · Volume

Typical interpretation

A rising AD line alongside rising prices typically confirms buying pressure; divergences can signal weakening trend strength.

OBV & normalised OBV

Cumulative volume in trend direction

On-balance volume cumulates volume depending on price up or down moves. The model uses normalised OBV variants (e.g. z-scores, percentage changes) to compare across stocks and detect divergences between OBV and price.

Formula
OBV(t) = OBV(t−1) + Volume(t) · sign(Close(t) − Close(t−1))

Typical interpretation

Rising OBV during sideways or only slightly rising prices indicates quiet accumulation; falling OBV with flat prices can signal distribution by larger players.

VWAP – rolling, cumulative, anchored

Volume-weighted reference price

VWAP represents the volume-weighted average price. The model uses rolling VWAPs (e.g. 5-, 20-day), cumulative VWAPs since events (e.g. earnings) and anchored VWAPs starting at key swing points to approximate institutionally relevant price levels.

Formula
VWAP = Σ(Price · Volume) / Σ Volume

Typical interpretation

Price above key VWAP lines is often read as bullish, below as bearish. Confluence of several VWAP levels (e.g. year-to-date and last major low) often marks highly relevant zones.

Market structure & price levels

Swings, FVGs, order blocks, pivots & Fibonacci

Structural features describe how highs, lows and price zones form over time. They complement classical indicators and provide context for support, resistance and trend breaks. The model uses short-term structure (intraday/short swings) and long-term structure (multi-month levels).

Schematic illustration

HH/HL/LH/LL & BOS/state

Swing structure and break of structure

The model automatically detects higher highs (HH), higher lows (HL), lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) on multiple time frames. Transitions between bullish sequences (HH/HL) and bearish sequences (LH/LL) are labelled as break of structure (BOS). The current structural state (e.g. bullish, bearish, neutral) is encoded as a feature.

Formula
Rule-based detection of local highs/lows;
State transitions, e.g.:
• bullish when HH/HL sequence is active
• bearish when LH/LL
• BOS (break of structure) when the sequence type changes

Typical interpretation

A prolonged bullish state with multiple HH/HL followed by a clear BOS and structurally lower high is a classic trend reversal pattern. The model learns how such patterns historically affected different horizons.

Order blocks

Zones of concentrated institutional activity

Order block zones are identified via volume clusters, ranges and subsequent strong moves. Short order blocks capture intraday reaction levels, while wider, long-lived blocks likely reflect activity of larger market participants.

Formula
Cluster analysis of price–volume data to identify consolidation areas before strong moves (order blocks).

Typical interpretation

Pullbacks into prominent order block zones that align with VWAP, pivot levels or FVG boundaries often mark important decision points.

Fair value gaps (FVGs)

Price areas with little trading in between

FVGs are gaps where price moved quickly with little overlapping trading in neighbouring candles. The model distinguishes between short-lived FVGs (e.g. news-driven) and long-standing imbalances that often get filled weeks later.

Formula
Bullish FVG: High(t−1) < Low(t+1)
Bearish FVG: Low(t−1)  > High(t+1)

Typical interpretation

Revisits of FVG zones can act as liquidity magnets. Stacked FVGs indicate highly trending markets where pullbacks often gravitate towards those areas.

Structural features (ATR, FVGs, order blocks)

Combination of volatility and price zones

The model combines structural volatility (e.g. ATR relative to zone size) with FVG and order block locations. This yields features that describe not only where a zone is but also how volatile the market typically behaves there.

Formula
Examples:
• ATR_in_zone / zone height
• Number of FVGs inside a zone
• Distance (in ATR units) from price to zone midpoint

Typical interpretation

Zones with historically high structural volatility and strong reactions are weighted differently by the model than ‘dead’ price areas with little activity.

Pivot points – classic, Fibonacci, Camarilla

Mathematically derived support/resistance levels

Pivot points split the prior day’s range into potential support and resistance levels. The model uses classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla variants and considers daily, weekly and monthly pivots.

Formula
Classic:
P  = (High + Low + Close) / 3
R1 = 2P − Low
S1 = 2P − High
…
Fibonacci and Camarilla pivots use their respective multipliers.

Typical interpretation

When multiple pivot levels (e.g. daily and weekly) align with order blocks, VWAP and FVG boundaries, this often creates a highly relevant decision area.

Fibonacci retracements

Typical retracement levels of moves

Fibonacci retracements mark percentage pullbacks of prior moves (e.g. 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%). The model considers both retracements within local swings and on higher time frames to identify multi-layered reaction zones.

Formula
Retracement level = Start + (End − Start) · Fib factor
Fib factors: 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, …

Typical interpretation

Reactions at 38.2% or 61.8% retracements, especially in confluence with other structure features, are often interpreted as potential trend continuation or reversal zones.

Important: No single technical indicator triggers a trading signal in isolation. Our machine-learning model evaluates all features jointly and learns from historical data which combinations of trend, momentum, volatility, volume and structural features made specific price developments across horizons statistically more likely.

Core Metrics

Five Pillars of Model Evaluation

To make forecast quality tangible, we focus on five key metrics: ACC, BALACC, AUC, BRIER and MCC – complemented by a weighted average across all relevant horizons. Each metric highlights a different dimension of model performance.

ACCModel metric

Accuracy

Accuracy describes the share of forecasts where the model got the direction right. It is the most intuitive metric: how often the forecast was correct overall – regardless of whether the market moved up or down.

Interpretation: A solid ACC is a good starting point, but it is not sufficient on its own – especially when markets trend in one direction for extended periods.

BALACCModel metric

Balanced Accuracy

Balanced accuracy gives equal importance to up and down phases. Rather than just counting all correct predictions, it separately measures performance in rising and falling regimes and averages them.

Interpretation: BALACC is especially important in markets that are one-sided for long periods. It reveals whether the model genuinely handles both directions instead of just ‘liking’ one specific environment.

AUCModel metric

AUC – Discriminative Power

AUC shows how well the model separates cases that later move up from those that move down. Instead of focusing on a single threshold, AUC evaluates the full distribution of model scores.

Interpretation: High AUC values mean that high model scores are typically associated with better outcomes than low scores. It is ideal for judging the quality of ranking and selection strategies.

BRIERModel metric

Brier Score – Probability Quality

The Brier score measures how well predicted probabilities match reality. It does not just look at whether an event occurred, but how far the predicted probability deviated from the actual outcome.

Interpretation: The lower the Brier score, the better the calibration: a model where 70% signals actually hit roughly 70% of the time has high probabilistic quality.

MCCModel metric

MCC – Matthews Correlation

The Matthews correlation coefficient condenses all entries of the confusion matrix into a single robust value. It takes correct and incorrect signals in both directions into account and is sensitive to class imbalance.

Interpretation: MCC is excellent for fair comparison of models across markets and time periods. Values near 0 indicate randomness, while positive values point to genuine information content in the signal.

WEIGHTED AVGModel metric

Weighted Average Across Horizons

Instead of focusing on a single horizon, multiple horizons are combined into one overall score. Short-term and longer-term forecasts can be weighted differently, depending on strategy and usage profile.

Interpretation: Weighted average metrics help summarise a model with a single number without losing the depth of individual horizons. They are particularly useful for comparing models or markets.

Together, these metrics paint a clear picture: how often the model is right, how fairly it treats both directions, how well it separates strong from weak signals, and how reliable its probabilities really are.

FAQ

Answers to the most common questions about our technology, probabilities, metrics and how to interpret the stock forecasts.

What technology powers your stock predictions?+

Our forecasts are powered by an ensemble of modern machine-learning models specifically tuned for time-dependent financial data. The models process hundreds of technical indicators, market structure signals and volume information in parallel. Training is highly compute-intensive and runs on GPU-accelerated cloud infrastructure. Models are typically retrained or updated every night once new end-of-day data is available so the system can continuously adapt to current market conditions.

What historical data do you use for the forecasts?+

We work with high-quality historical market data, including closing prices, open, high and low prices, daily trading volume, and derived quantities such as returns, volatility and a wide range of technical indicators. Data is typically processed on an end-of-day basis after the market close, then cleaned and normalised. This ensures the models are built on consistent time series without distortions from outliers, splits or bad ticks.

What does the displayed probability mean and why are signals only shown above 70% or below 30%?+

The probability indicates how likely, according to the model, the price is to rise (UP) or fall (DOWN) over a defined horizon. For example, a value of 72% means that in historically similar situations the market went up in roughly 72% of cases. To avoid noise, we only show signals when probabilities are clearly elevated or clearly reduced, typically ≥ 70% for upward moves or ≤ 30% for downward moves. In the neutral zone between these thresholds the market is statistically hard to distinguish, so we deliberately avoid issuing signals there.

What is an UP signal and what is a DOWN signal?+

An UP signal means the model sees an elevated probability that the price will rise over the chosen horizon. A DOWN signal indicates an elevated probability of a price decrease. Both signals are purely statistical statements from technical analysis and are not direct buy or sell recommendations. They are intended as an additional building block within your own decision process, which should also consider risk profile, diversification and fundamentals.

What exactly does the forecast horizon mean?+

The forecast horizon specifies over how many trading days the model’s expectation extends. A 1D horizon refers to the next trading day, 5D to roughly one week, 20D to several weeks and 60D to a mid- to longer-term period. Horizons are based on trading days, not calendar days. Very short horizons are much noisier, while longer horizons tend to reflect more structural trends and regimes.

How should I interpret the probabilities correctly?+

Probabilities are not promises of a specific price outcome but statistical statements based on historically similar market situations. A probability of 70% does not mean the market will ‘certainly’ rise, but that it rose more often than it fell in comparable cases. Individual outcomes can always differ. Probabilities are best used as weighting or contextual input, not as guarantees.

What does it mean when different horizons show conflicting signals?+

Different horizons reflect different market dynamics. A positive 5D signal may indicate short-term momentum, while a negative 60D signal points to a broader downtrend. Such constellations are common during corrections or regime transitions. Many users use this information to adjust position size, stagger entries, or trade short-term setups more cautiously.

How often do signals occur?+

Signals are generated deliberately selectively. In calm or statistically ambiguous market phases, there may be extended periods without clear signals. During strong trends or high volatility, signals tend to appear more frequently. Exact frequency depends on the market, horizon and prevailing market dynamics.

Do the signals work in sideways markets or during crises?+

Sideways markets and extreme crisis phases are among the hardest environments for any form of forecasting. In such phases, the separation between UP and DOWN scenarios often deteriorates, which is reflected in fewer or more cautious signals. The system is designed to surface this uncertainty rather than forcing artificial clarity.

How accurate are AI-based stock predictions?+

Accuracy strongly depends on horizon, market regime and the specific stock. Financial markets always contain a large amount of randomness, especially in the short term. The goal of the models is therefore not perfect prediction, but a statistically measurable improvement over chance. What matters is whether probabilities are consistently better than neutral expectations across many cases — which is exactly what we measure with multiple metrics.

How do you prevent overfitting and unrealistic backtests?+

We strictly separate training, validation and test periods in time and rely consistently on out-of-sample evaluation. In addition, we use walk-forward testing, where models are repeatedly retrained and evaluated on subsequent, previously unseen data. This helps ensure that measured performance is not the result of hindsight optimisation but of genuine generalisation.

What do ACC, BALACC, AUC, Brier Score and MCC mean in your evaluations?+

ACC (accuracy) describes in what fraction of cases the model predicted the direction correctly – i.e. how often UP and DOWN signals turned out to be right. BALACC (balanced accuracy) gives equal weight to up and down regimes so models do not look ‘good’ simply because they favour one trend direction. AUC measures the discriminative power of the model scores: cases that later move up should, on average, receive higher scores than those that move down. The Brier score evaluates the quality of probability forecasts: the lower the score, the better the predicted probabilities match realised outcomes. MCC (Matthews correlation coefficient) condenses all entries of the confusion matrix into a single robust number and is particularly useful for fair comparison of models across markets and time periods.

What is a hit rate and how is it calculated?+

The hit rate measures how often a given signal turned out to be correct. For example, an UP signal with a high probability is counted as a ‘hit’ if the price rises over the chosen horizon, and as a ‘miss’ if it falls. Similarly, a DOWN signal must be confirmed by a subsequent price decline. The hit rate is the number of hits divided by the total number of signals. It can be computed separately for each horizon and provides an intuitive sense of how often signals have worked historically.

What does “walk-forward” (walk-forward validation) mean?+

Walk-forward validation is a continuous evaluation approach for time series. Instead of training once on the full history and evaluating ‘in hindsight’, the model is advanced through time step by step: it is trained only on data that would have been available at that point, and then tested on the subsequent period. This produces a more realistic estimate of forecast quality across changing market regimes.

What does “out-of-sample” mean for you — is it real market data?+

Out-of-sample means the evaluation is performed on periods the model had not ‘seen’ at training time. Our metrics are computed on real, continuously accruing market data as new trading days occur. This way, the numbers are not just an in-sample backtest, but an ongoing, timely measurement under real market conditions.

How do you prevent look-ahead bias and data leakage?+

With financial time series, it is critical to keep features and labels strictly separated in time. We generate all input features only from information available up to the respective market close, and evaluate via walk-forward on subsequent periods. This prevents future information from unintentionally leaking into training, normalisation, or feature computation.

How often are models updated and when are signals published?+

Forecasts are typically updated daily once new end-of-day data (after market close) is available. Signals are then ready before the next market open. This keeps analyses consistent and reproducible, relying on stable closing data rather than short-lived intraday noise.

Do you account for splits, dividends, and corporate actions?+

Yes. For robust time series, price data and derived indicators are processed so common breaks (e.g., from splits) do not create artificial jumps in features and evaluations. The goal is a consistent history so signals and metrics remain comparable over long periods.

Why do you use separate models per stock and forecast horizon?+

Stocks behave differently — liquidity, volatility, trend strength and reaction patterns can vary significantly. Also, a 1D forecast is statistically a different problem than a 60D forecast. That’s why models are trained per horizon and per asset, so forecasts better match the respective behaviour and time scale.

Why are some accuracies or metrics relatively low on certain horizons?+

Financial markets are non-stationary and influenced by many external factors such as macroeconomic releases, interest rate decisions, geopolitical events and company news. Especially on very short horizons random noise dominates, so metrics like ACC or BALACC naturally tend to sit closer to the chance level. Lower values therefore do not automatically mean the model is ‘bad’, but often that the corresponding market segment was statistically hard to forecast. It is important to interpret metrics in the context of horizon, market regime and your own strategy.

What role do lags play and why do you normalise the features?+

Lags capture how past values of an indicator influence future price movements. For example, if a specific momentum signal three days ago has historically been followed by rising prices, the model can learn this lagged relationship and adjust the current UP probability accordingly. To make such relationships comparable across stocks with different price levels, volatilities and liquidity, all features are normalised. This prevents very expensive, highly volatile or illiquid names from dominating the model and ensures that probability scales remain consistent across the universe.

Why do you use weighted averages of metrics across multiple horizons?+

Instead of focusing on a single horizon, we combine multiple horizons into an overall measure. Short-term horizons are typically noisier and more volatile, while longer horizons capture structural predictive power more reliably. In many cases, longer horizons therefore receive slightly higher weight to produce a more robust overall picture, while shorter horizons still contribute information. The result is a metric that reflects both trading and investment perspectives and is well suited for comparing models or markets.

Who are the forecasts most suitable for?+

The forecasts are designed for informed retail investors and traders seeking data-driven decision support. They are particularly suitable for users who already work with technical analysis, fundamentals or systematic approaches and want to integrate probabilities into their own strategy.

Are the forecasts investment advice or a buy/sell recommendation?+

No. Our forecasts do not constitute investment advice and do not replace personalised guidance from qualified professionals. They are automated, technically-oriented evaluations of historical price and indicator data. Your personal financial situation, risk profile and objectives are not taken into account. You should therefore treat the information as one building block within a broader decision and risk management framework.

How can I use the signals for short-term trades?+

For short-term setups, the 5D and 20D horizons are often more useful because they are less dominated by noise than pure 1D moves. In practice, signals work best as an additional filter — for example to confirm your own setup based on trend, support/resistance, volume, or a news context. It also helps to consider fundamentals and events such as earnings, and to manage risk via position sizing, stop levels, and diversification. Signals are statistical probabilities and should never be used as the sole decision basis.

How can I use the signals for mid- to long-term investing?+

For mid- to longer-term decisions, the 20D and 60D signals are often most relevant because they better reflect trend and regime phases. Many users apply these horizons to time entries and adds, to scale into positions, or to reduce risk during weaker phases. The most robust approach is combining signals with fundamentals (quality, valuation, growth) and a clear portfolio framework. Again, signals are not buy/sell recommendations — they are a data-driven complement to your own strategy.

How can I try the platform and what does it cost?+

We plan to offer new users a free one-month trial so you can explore the core forecasting features without any risk. After that, several options are conceivable, such as an inexpensive day pass for occasional access or a monthly / yearly subscription for regular users. Details of the final pricing model will be communicated transparently in the interface. In any case, the core goal is to provide high-quality, AI-powered technical analysis at a fair price.